Data shows why Barcelona might have trouble with PSG now Messi is injured

Last night Barcelona against drew PSG in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-finals clash. Scoring two goals in Paris set up the Catalan giants for a spot in the semifinals. But not all was good news for them: Lionel Messi, the best player in the world, will miss the decider because of an injury just before halftime. He was replaced by Cesc Fabregas, also a world-class player. Since comparing equal measures is great for data (I will disregard the drama issues here), I compared the footballing machine’s performance in the two very different halves.

The conclusion is Barça would still be still dominating without the Argentinian, but they would have more difficulties to do their best: quality passing as fast as possible. Barcelona ended the match with amazing 67% ball possession (and their were playing at the Parc des Princes stadium.) Still it was visible the team had gotten slower without Messi in the last 45 minutes, which helps prove the case how good the Argentinian is — by adding speed, he can improve a team which would be very special anyway.

When Messi is not on the pitch — which is pretty rare for Barcelona — the player who takes over most of his roles as a skill leader is World Cup champion Xavi Fernandez. Despite being a fantastic footballer, he just couldn’t keep up the pace he has when Messi is next to him. Neither could Iniesta. Nor Jordi Alba, Dani Alves and Sergio Busquets.

Xavi’s passing numbers were cut to half when he had to work with Fabregas in the midfield. About the same happened to Iniesta and Jordi Alba. Alves lost more than a third in overall passing. Busquets, the most defensive of the players in Barça’s midfield, had a decrease and also missed more passes. These data were assembled by Uefa.

Was that the reason why PSG had a reasonable chance of winning the match? The late equalizer might make everyone think it was pretty much a Barcelona match, but the second half really made people wonder if a great day by the French squad and an average one from the Catalans could change everything in the second leg at the Camp Nou. Data also suggests that. Since Messi won’t be on the pitch, Parisian hopes are not unjustified.

I am a journalist. But that is not my fault, I assure you. I am also from Sao Paulo, Brazil. That is probably my fault.

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